UCaHS - Urban Climate and Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change (DFG)
|Title:||Urban Climate and
Heat Stress in mid-latitude cities in view of climate change
Urban pattern (Modelling interactions between urban pattern and heat stress)
Research Foundation (DFG)|
of the research unit
Lead:||Prof. Dr. Birgit Kleinschmit
subproject Urban Patterns aims at modelling the interrelations of
urban patterns and heat stress. Heat stress risk within a city is a
function of urban climate, the vulnerability of city dwellers and the
detailed physical urban structure. The building density, structure and
form as well as the availability of green spaces influence heat
storage in urban neighbourhoods in great measure as recent studies
proof. Mitigation concepts by planning are starting to face heat
stress risks currently. However, little is known about the
effectiveness of those measures. Complex individual measures of
adaptation to heat stress risks in form of behavioural change
regarding housing decisions are barely understood and need to be
addressed. We focus on utilizing different model techniques to
simulate the interaction of urban patterns, heat stress risk and
measures of adaptation and mitigation on different spatial scales.
(1) For the citywide model we combine system dynamics and cellular automaton to incorporate household dynamics, residential choice, land-use change and mitigation measures in terms of planning. Urban patterns are simulated to analyze shifts of heat stress probability. Further, we close the feedback describing effects on urban patterns and heat stress risks as a consequence of involved mitigation measures.
(2) On the building scale an agent-based model is applied to learn from changing housing decisions due to complex individual interactions. Consequences on the spatial distribution are mapped and analyzed regarding spatial patterns and heat stress risk adaptation. The research results will provide insights in complex decision-making and system understanding. Simulations of future scenarios deliver directions of urban patterns as a consequence of mitigation of and adaptation to future heat stress risks by what the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation measures can be determined. By the combination of different model techniques a new methodological approach will be implemented.